Box Office Recap: May 19-21, 2023
Fast X wins the weekend box office with $250+ million worldwide debut.
After scoring a box office victory earlier this spring with The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Universal cruised its way to first place again, as Fast X opened with a $60+ million domestically and $250+ million worldwide. Yet, while falling just within its pre-release expectations of $65-75 million, some are seeing this as a phyrric victory for the hit action franchise, with its massive costs outweighing its box office wins. Elsewhere on the debut front, Magnolia Pictures’s gave their new crime thriller Master Gardener a limited release in over 200 theaters, where it earned roughly over $250.0k.
Finishing in first place, Universal’s Fast X scored a debut of $67.5 million domestically. The action sequel to the popular Fast & Furious franchise opened in 4,046 locations and earned a strong per-theater average of $16,563. While critical reception was mixed, the film did receive a solid “B+” CinemaScore from opening weekend moviegoers, which could contribute to steady box office legs. Internationally, the blockbuster actioner, which stars Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez and Academy Award winners Charlize Theron, Brie Larson and Helen Mirren, brought in an additional $199.8 million to help boost its worldwide debut to $267.3 million against a reported production budget of $340 million.
Looking ahead, despite its strong first place opening, one obvious area of concern is its massive production budget, which is nearly $100 million more than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3’s already massive $250 million production budget. Fast X should still do well this upcoming Memorial Day weekend, with the only major theatrical opening being Disney’s The Little Mermaid remake. However, the competition will only be getting stronger over the course of the following weekends. June will see the releases of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (June 2), Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (June 9) and The Flash (June 16), all of which are not only expected to run away with the top box office spot, but also draw audiences away from Fast X. Going by the standard 2-3x multiplier that is used to determine the estimated mark where a film begins being profitable, Fast X is looking at a minimum target of $680 million to start earning profit, and that’s on the conservative end.
Ordinarily, a $250+ million opening is nothing to sneeze at, but the concerns here are justifiable, and it’s not just simply Fast X’s gargantuan $340 million price tag (before marketing). The Super Mario Bros. Movie could’ve cost the same amount, and there wouldn’t be any concern because that film has grossed over $1.2 billion globally and is continuing to perform well after nearly two months in release. A movie like Avengers: Endgame may have cost more with its $350-400 million production budget, but it also enjoyed a worldwide opening of a whopping $1.2 billion and went on to gross $2.79 billion overall. The fact is this film may appear to have opened strong, but if you remove its international performance you’re left with an okay domestic opening of only $67.5 million. That number pales in comparison to the domestic openings of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($114.0 million) and The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($146.4 million), and is even outperformed by a smaller franchise effort like John Wick: Chapter 4 ($73.5 million). While the discrepencies between its international and domestic peformances have always been large for the Fast & Furious films, this appears to be a case of a franchise that has finally gotten too big financially for its own good, and the proof is in its diminishing returns since Furious 7’s franchise record domestic opening of $147.2 million. Since that film, the franchise has opened with The Fate of the Furious ($98.8 million) and F9: The Fast Saga ($70.0 million).
Of course, Fast X’s fate at the box office won’t be for certain until after the next few weekends, and for sure not until we see how much of a drop it may take over its sophomore run this upcoming weekend, but signs may be pointing to moviegoers finally being ready to move on from this franchise.
Landing in the runner-up spot, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 continued its strong run with a third weekend domestic finish of $32.0 million. This marks a -47.7% drop from its previous weekend frame, earning a per-theater average of $7,282 at 4,450 locations. So far, the current entry of the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has earned $267.0 million domestically. Overseas, the film has earned $393.6 million for a global cume of $660.6 million against a reported production budget of $250 million.
Coming in third, Universal’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie grossed $9.8 million domestically over its seventh weekend in release, moving its total domestic performance to $549.1 million. This marks only a -23.9% drop from its prior weekend frame, earning a per-theater average of $2,711 at 3,540 locations. Internationally, the animated adventure, which is based on the iconic Nintendo video game, earned $700.1 million, pushing its total worldwide run to a year’s best $1.23 billion against a reported production budget of $100 million.
In fourth place, Focus Feature’s Book Club: The Next Chapter made $3.0 million over its sophomore frame, which moves its total domestic run to $13.1 million. This marks a -55.1% drop from its debut weekend frame, earning a per-theater average of $854 at 3,513 locations. Overseas, the rom-com, which stars Academy Award winners Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Mary Steenburgen and Academy Award nominee Candice Bergen, earned $3.8 million to help push its total worldwide performance to $16.9 million against a reported production budget of $20 million.
Rounding out the top five, Warner Bros.’s Evil Dead Rise earned $2.4 million domestically over its fifth weekend in release, pushing its total domestic performance to $64.2 million. Internationally, the horror sequel to the iconic Evil Dead series brought in $76.2 million for a global cume of $140.4 million against a reported production budget of $19 million.
Outside the top ten, in fourteenth place, Magnolia Pictures’s Master Gardener opened with $264.0k. The crime thriller, which is written and directed by Academy Award nominee Paul Schrader and stars Joel Edgerton and Academy Award nominee Sigourney Weaver, earned a per-theater average of $1,177 at 225 locations.
Opening this weekend, Disney debuts their live-action remake of The Little Mermaid starring Halle Bailey, Academy Award winner Javier Bardem and Academy Award nominee Melissa McCarthy; Lionsgate will open About My Father, their comedy which is loosely based on stand-up comedian Sebastian Maniscalco’s life and stars Maniscalco and Academy Award winner Robert De Niro; and Open Road Films will debut their action thriller Kandahar starring Gerard Butler.
* Total worldwide gross listed in parenthesis.
1) Fast X – $67.5 million, Week 1 ($267.3 million)
2) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 – $32.0 million, Week 3 ($660.6 million)
3) The Super Mario Bros. Movie – $9.8 million, Week 7 ($1.23 billion)
4) Book Club: The Next Chapter – $3.0 million, Week 2 ($16.9 million)
5) Evil Dead Rise – $2.4 million, Week 5 ($140.4 million)
6) John Wick: Chapter 4 – $1.332 million, Week 9 ($427.6 million)
7) Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. – $1.326 million, Week 4 ($18.7 million)
8) Hypnotic – $825.0k, Week 2 ($4.4 million)
9) Love Again – $400.0k, Week 3 ($10.4 million)
10) Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves – $385.0k, Week 8 ($207.4 million)
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